Not missing the wood for the gold
Shyam Saran July 19, 2012
India should keep out of the
unseemly race for Myanmar’s resources and focus instead on its long-term
interests in that country
In ancient Indian chronicles,
Myanmar was known as Suvarnabhumi or the “golden land”' already famous for its
boundless riches. Its fabled wealth of gold, silver, precious gems and much
more, attracted invaders and traders from around the world. There is now a 21st
century version of a “gold rush” beginning to take hold as Myanmar opens its
doors to the world. Nothing demonstrates this more starkly than the U.S.
government decision to lift the prohibition on new American investment in
Myanmar including doing business with state owned oil companies. This is
despite the public plea from the leader of the country’s democracy movement,
Aung San Suu Kyi, that such deals should be avoided until these entities
embrace transparent practices and remove corruption.
Lure
of opportunities
At the U.S.-Asean meeting at Siem
Reap, Cambodia, which concluded on July 13, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
had her second meeting with Myanmar President Thein Sein and the two later
addressed the strong business contingent accompanying Ms Clinton. It was
announced that a 70-member U.S. business delegation would soon visit Myanmar to
explore trade and investment opportunities. Other western and Asian states are
likely to follow. Clearly the lure of commercial opportunities and profit has
triumphed over the hitherto careful alignment with the pace set by Ms Suu Kyi.
As this trend gains strength, Ms Suu Kyi will lose one of the more potent
bargaining chips she has in dealing with the military dominated government,
that is her ability to calibrate the dismantling of western sanctions that have
been in place for the past two-and-a-half decades. This may well lead to
opinion in India that we, too, should join this rush or face further
marginalisation in a key neighbouring country.
This may not be the best strategy to
pursue.
In Siem Reap, Mr. Thein Sein spelt
out three reforms which were on the top of his agenda. The first, he said, was
to consolidate democracy, build strong democratic institutions and restore the
fundamental rights of people, including the freedom of speech and assembly. The
second was to achieve lasting peace in the country by reaching out to the
various ethnic groups and bringing them into the national mainstream. And the
third was to transform an essentially centralised economy into a market
oriented one, open to foreign investment and commercial exchanges. In each of
these areas India can offer itself as a significant and long-term partner,
relevant to Myanmar’s own identified priority areas. India should avoid falling
victim to a herd mentality but instead focus on establishing a long-term and
sustainable presence in the country, encompassing political, security and
economic fields. Myanmar may currently be the flavour of the month. For India,
it must remain on the menu as a key foreign policy and security challenge in a
rapidly changing environment.
Why is Myanmar important to India?
Here is a neighbour with whom we share a 1,600 km long land boundary. Four of
our sensitive northeastern States — Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and
Mizoram — lie along this border. In dealing with the complex security situation
prevailing in this region, Myanmar's cooperation is often critical. The two
countries also share the strategic waters of the Bay of Bengal. Any hostile or
inimical presence along the Myanmarese coast or on its off-shore islands facing
India would be of great concern. Myanmar is also critical to the success of
India’s Look East policy. It is India’s gateway to Asean and a transit country
for trade and economic exchanges with southern China. The sub-regional
organisation of BIMSTEC, which straddles both South and South-East Asia, gives
a pivotal role to Myanmar as a regional hub. India has long standing
historical, cultural and religious links with Myanmar which underpin a
broad-based relationship. There are cross-border ethnic links, too, with Naga
and Mizo tribes inhabiting both sides of the India-Myanmar border. The
prospects for an enhanced economic partnership, in particular, in the energy
sector will add to this substantive and comprehensive relationship, but only as
a significant component, not as a singular rationale for engagement.
Significant
presence
India’s interests require a
significant, but not a dominant presence in Myanmar. Countervailing China’s
hitherto overweening presence in Myanmar could not be an Indian preoccupation
alone. Our interests are served as Myanmar’s foreign relations become more
diversified, lowering the salience of Chinese influence.
In this context, Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh’s visit to Myanmar in the last week of May was a major
initiative. India tried to align itself with the priorities set by the Myanmar
leadership itself, including Ms Suu Kyi. The Prime Minister offered Indian
expertise and support in the setting up of strong democratic institutions and
build capacity in parliamentary practice and procedures. India’s own experience
in managing a multi-ethnic, multicultural and plural democracy is a useful
point of reference as Myanmar seeks to pursue reconciliation and accommodation
with its several ethnic minorities. On the economic side, the visit resulted in
a number of important agreements, the most notable being the extension of a
$500 million credit line to finance several projects. The two sides agreed to
launch a Border Area Development Programme, which will seek to establish
development corridors along the ambitious cross-border transport links that are
being put in place. This will be of considerable relevance to the development
of our own northeast.
The Prime Minister met Ms Suu Kyi in
Yangon and extended her an invitation to visit India which she accepted. This
will take place later this year. The meeting was warm and friendly with both
sides eager to dispel the sense of disappointment which had resulted from
India’s engagement with the Myanmar generals while she was languishing under
house arrest.
Ms Suu Kyi focussed on the
development challenges facing her country, particularly the alleviation of
poverty among her people and was keenly interested in India’s own experience in
this regard. As member of Parliament, she has declared her intention to work
hard for the betterment of the lives of people, promote inter-ethnic harmony
and national reconciliation and contribute to the consolidation of democracy in
her country. She recognises that the way ahead is full of risks and
uncertainties. One cannot say that the reform process is irreversible. Ms Suu
Kyi has also been careful in her statements on the ethnic issue, which could
erupt in dangerous ways. The Kachin insurgency lingers on and the recent
violence in the Rakhine province involving the Rohingyas has confronted her
with difficult political challenges which are not easy to resolve. In the
initiatives that Ms Suu Kyi may adopt to take a leadership role in addressing
these challenges, India could be a friendly and supportive partner.
India should, therefore, avoid being
distracted by the gold rush and remain focussed on the long term. It has a
unique opportunity to align itself with the priorities set by the leaders of
Myanmar and make its own contribution to enabling a successful political and
economic transition in a strategic neighbouring country.
This is a more sensible way of
ensuring India’s political, economic and security interests in its strategic
neighbourhood than joining the unseemly grab for resources that appears to have
gripped Myanmar’s erstwhile detractors.
(Shyam Saran is a former Foreign
Secretary. He is currently Chairman, Research and Information System for
Developing Countries and Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research.)
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